Super El Niño: what changes in Lavras as the Pacific warms
Inpe gives a 95% chance of a very strong event by December; for Sul de Minas, the signal is above-average heat and irregular rain
Automatically translated from Portuguese. Read the original in Portuguese
The Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, and the effect is already reaching Sul de Minas. The most recent data, checked on Wednesday (11), point to a strong episode. The El Niño Dashboard from the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe, the National Institute for Space Research) gives a 95% chance that the phenomenon will reach very strong intensity by December, the so-called super El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization (OMM) also forecasts the peak for December.
El Niño is the warming of the waters of the Pacific near the Equator. When the sea surface temperature rises 0.5 degrees above average, the phenomenon is established. Above 1.5 degrees, scientists classify the episode as a super El Niño.
In Brazil, the most common pattern is above-average rain in the South and drought in the North and Northeast. Minas Gerais lies in a transition zone, with no clearly defined signal for rainfall.
For Lavras and the region, the clearest signal is above-average heat, with heat waves, and irregular rain: dry days in a row followed by heavy storms in short periods. The situation weighs on coffee, pastures and the power bill.
The advice is to drink plenty of water, avoid strong sun in the middle of the day, and follow the alerts from the Defesa Civil (civil defense). The video above explains the phenomenon in one minute. The updated weather forecast is on the Rádio Cultura portal.
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