Very strong El Niño through January: INMET forecasts more rain and more heat in the center-south of Minas, where Lavras is located

Picture the coffee grower in South Minas looking at the sky this year-end. The rain should come, and it should come above average. That is what the 5th edition of the El Niño 2026-2027 Panel shows, the official bulletin released by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) on October 29.

The panel is produced jointly by seven federal agencies: INMET, INPE, ANA, Cemaden, Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB), National Civil Defense Secretariat (Sedec) and Censipam.

The Pacific is more than three degrees above normal

According to the bulletin, the US agency NOAA confirmed El Niño on June 11. Since then, the warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean has only increased. In the NOAA bulletin of October 26, the water was more than 3 °C above normal in the reference areas.

Global meteorology centers indicate that the phenomenon will continue until at least the first quarter of 2027, with strong to very strong intensity. For November, December and January, the forecast is for a very strong event. NOAA even points to the possibility that this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950.

What changes in Brazil from November to January

The quarterly climate forecast, made by INPE, INMET and Funceme, shows:

- More rain than average in the South and in parts of the Southeast and Center-West; - Less rain than average across much of the North and in areas of the Northeast and Center-West; - Temperatures above average across almost the whole country, especially in the North. The exception is Rio Grande do Sul, which tends to stay below average.

And here in Lavras and the region?

On INMET's rainfall map, the center-south of Minas Gerais, where Lavras is located, appears in blue: the most likely category is above-average rainfall for the quarter. On the temperature map, our region is in red: the trend is for above-average heat.

The bulletin itself mentions the region when discussing crops. Above-average rain in São Paulo, the Triângulo Mineiro and the center-south of Minas, together with the heat, may favor the grain filling of arabica coffee, flowering and grain filling of soybeans, and the development of corn and beans.

But excess water also comes at a cost. INMET warns that it can hamper fieldwork, increase fungal diseases and harm the quality of early-harvest beans and soybeans.

In the north and northeast of Minas, the scenario is the opposite: less water available, with risk to first-season crops and to conilon coffee.

The forecast does not say which day the storm will hit

A quarterly forecast shows the trend, not the exact day or place of a storm. That is why the panel stresses the need to follow the day-to-day forecasts and alerts. INMET's weather alerts are published at avisos.inmet.gov.br.

National Civil Defense recommends that the public:

- Register your cell phone to receive alerts: send your postal code (CEP) by SMS to number 40199. The service is free; - Learn the risk areas, safe locations and escape routes in your neighborhood; - Follow self-protection guidance whenever there is an alert.

The 72-hour kit and the battery-powered radio

On Thursday (6), National Civil Defense advised families to keep at home a 72-hour emergency kit, with water, non-perishable food, medicine, flashlight, documents and a battery-powered radio. The guidance is preventive and is not related to any specific threat.

With the strong El Niño and the forecast of more rain for South Minas, the kit makes even more sense. When the power goes out and the internet stops, the radio stays on air.

In an emergency, call Civil Defense at 199 or the Fire Department (Corpo de Bombeiros) at 193.

Source: INMET, El Niño Panel 2026-2027, Monthly Bulletin No. 05 (October 2026), available at portal.inmet.gov.br/notasTecnicas.